Demchack, C. (1995). Complex adaptive systems, chaos, and contemporary policymaking: Changing Large Technical Systems (Review). Policy Studies Journal, 23(2), 383-386.
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Jane Summerton (Ed.), Changing Large Technical Systems. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994. 348 pp.; $49.85 hardcover only.
Research on large technical systems (LTS) rests on a concern for the potential perils of an ever-tightening coupling of social activities. In the worst conceivable cases, as disparate elements form an LTS, their rapid, mutually dependent operations become so automatic and complex that nonobvious, internally-derived rules drive events out of individual human or external policy control. Under these circumstances, small probability, risky events can cascade unpredictably into major disasters such as that at Bhopal, or into massive disruptions such as catastrophic electrical outages across large distances. Through its selections, this book ably presents a valuable set of field research findings that demonstrate the current status, breadth, and potential of this growing field of study. Several of the selections also demonstrate the downside of the field's lack of full acceptance by the wider social science community, i.e., a tendency towards self-referent prose, esoteric concepts, and specialized language.
The great value of this book is the revelatory case studies of large, intricate systems, unique across a range of literatures. In this book, the following phenomena are identified and studied under the rubric of large technical systems or embedded subsystems: the European organ transplant system, pre-1914 European armies, multinational corporations, pre-1914 American railroad signaling mechanisms, the emerging telecommunications system of a united Germany, the Australian electric power system, electric power grids in general, computer networks, nuclear energy's failure to thrive, and automobile traffic systems. In most cases, these scholars are interested in the mechanisms of change: How did a given system make the transition from independent elements meant for some other purpose to an integrated larger system?
Third in a series of edited conference proceedings, the book also shares several shortcomings of the field at large. First, there is the tendency to see a LTS in all spheres of activity dependent on machines. This tendency is understandable, given the polite political struggle of these scholars for recognition distinct from the science and technology (S&T) community and important enough for acceptance into the wider social science community.(1) The consequences, however, are a frequent redefinition of a LTS, to demonstrate that their work indeed is a member of a separably identifiable class of phenomena. In this volume, that effort goes so far as to violate a previously accepted chief attribute of an LTS: the presence of some central control. In the effort to include car traffic as a LTS, both Juhlin and Grundman stretch the definition to include any set of relationships that are found broadly and that have something mechanical as key to that relationship. By the end of the volume, and as Beckman's final piece notes, it is no longer clear what reliably is not an element of a LTS set.
With some notable exceptions, the authors in this book also demonstrate a regrettable tendency to use their own specialized vocabulary. Long laboring in the interdisciplinary empirical wilderness, many LTS scholars felt it necessary to create new terms for insights rather than to use those that were developed in other studies of complex adaptive systems. These unique terms then are cited by others in the field, and the connections with developments in the wider community slowly are lost.(2) For example, in the final chapter, Beckman presents an otherwise useful discussion of the analytical attributes that compose a large technical system. He also offers yet another set of indicators and labels for system attributes identified long ago by scholars, including fellow LTS scholar Todd LaPorte. Beckman's "inclusion, differentiation, coherence and hierarchy" differ only superficially from LaPorte's 1975 proposal of "components, differentiation, integration." In another example, Braun and Joeges study TOTS--the transborder organ transplant system--that comes into operation when a donor heart or organ needs to be moved to a recipient across borders. While these authors label this episodic cooperation a "second order large technical system," it bears a striking resemblance to the synthetic organization identified by J. D. Thompson in 1967.
Finally, some terms exist only in this literature. A number of the authors make reference to a 1983 definition of LTS that was made by an early LTS scholar, Thomas Hughes, and in particular his term "reverse salient." An obscure military term relevant only in unmechanized broadfront assaults, this usage represents unnecessary distinctions by which the field narrows its ability to communicate with other communities. Beckman calls this term an "extension of bottleneck theory" (p.318), but that claims greater distinction than is warranted. If a military term is desired over the straightforward use of bottleneck, then "warstopper" has more current relevance and connotative connection with the wider society. This exclusionary language development may have something to do with the largely European origins of these scholars; in any case, it is clear that the advancement of this field requires more crossfertilization and less use of esoteric referents.
Despite the linguistic limitations of this volume, it does illustrate an enormously exciting conceptual convergence between these LTS studies and the provocative works in chaos theory and theories on complex adaptive systems being developed in the more mathematically-oriented sciences. Like the LTS scholars, these other academics are outliers questioning the axioms of their larger communities and deriving extraordinary insights that relate directly to the concerns of the LTS community. As the published proceedings of the originating conference note, the goal is "to construct a comprehensive model of systems development which covers different technologies as well as different national contexts;" that effort has proceeded largely inductively from revelatory case studies of large complex systems.(3) In contrast, scholars of chaos mathematics and complexity theory use the computer and simple rules to watch the conditions under which large, complex systems emerge. Crossfertilization among these fields could produce not only a consistent language but also profitable avenues of research and advance.
The LTS field has a host of empirical data that need a more universal and accepted conceptual base, and the complexity/chaos theory community has a need for wider testing of its largely computer-derived observations. The LTS field could incorporate newer notions, such as Brian Arthur's increasing returns positive feedback theory, Stuart Kaufman's system of catalyzed genomes, John Holland's complex adaptive systems theory, Chris Langton's artificial life and edge of chaos project, Philip Anderson's phase transition observations, Doyne Farmer's new second law of emergence as the power of the connections in a system, and even Maturana and Varela's autopoesis.(4) These scholars are searching for persuasive explanations of how coupled processes emerge and survive; in so doing, their concerns and that of the LTS field are converging. For example, in the notional LTS described by several authors in this book, not only do individual elements have their own domains and key external audiences outside of the emerging LTS, but the joint structure itself also becomes a bastard entity beholden to many, but understandable by, and fully responsive to, no one in particular. Hence it achieves lifelike qualities independent of the initiating humans while nonetheless operated by, and operating on, around, and through human institutions Such developments commonly are observed in the autocatalytic processes that are central to the concerns of the chaos/complexity community. Conversely, Rochlin's observations of "artifactual success, systemic failure" would be understood well in the more abstract community, where strings of symbols die or grow inexplicably until they disintegrate.
A final convergence is in the nature of prediction. The chief policy recommendation of the LTS community is moderation in all things, due to the unpredictable nature of complex systems. For example, while "wheeling" in the crossleveling of electricity among varying regional systems, in moderation, is a good source of redundancy, if it is used to substitute for a slack in resources, it becomes a source of serious fragility when crises occur. For the chaos/complexity folks, policy recommendations are a long way from their scientific endeavors, at least so far, but a consistent theme is the need for caution and careful observation before doing anything radical. Across the studies of technology, especially the complex systems that are possible in widening networks of disparate technologies, a common theme therefore is that complex systems do not repeat patterns; at best, they demonstrate consistent themes, but given outcomes are unknowable in advance. This book is an excellent portrayal of this indeterminacy in large-scale human systems. Linked to the language of these other scholars, LTS studies truly could become the leading edge of empirical work into integrated systems so long sought by its community.
This book should be read by anyone--whether student, scholar, or policymaker--interested in large, complex systems. Although esoteric linguistically, the research findings are eminently readable by all disciplines. As a result, the breadth of the empirical work compensates for conceptual shortcomings. A policymaker can skim the prose and get a usable education into the conditions that require caution and moderation in changing large, complex systems. With the appropriately-tailored conceptual framework, an instructor profitably can use these case studies in a course that addresses the policy challenges of large systems. Finally, more mathematically oriented scholars studying complexity should read this book and the published papers of preceding conferences. With these real-world examples of complex adaptive systems, the complexity theorists can compare their more abstract hypotheses or programs with the conditions under which human systems adapt, prosper, or die.
Chris C. Demchak teaches in University of Arizona's School of Public Administration and Policy, and Political Science Department. With a University of California-Berkeley Ph.D., as well as master's degrees in energy engineering and economic development, Demchak has published a book and a number of articles on organization theory, public policy, and comparative studies of complex technologies in large-scale public organizations, particularly militaries.
Notes
1. For a discussion of where LTS studies fit within the S&T community, see Sheila Jasanoff, Gerald E. Markle, James C. Peterson, and Trevor Pinch, Handbook of science and technology studies, 1995.
2. I could find no citations that touched the more abstract literatures on complex adaptive systems emerging from the scholars who are associated with the Santa Fe Institute, with places like the International Institute for Systems Analysis in Austria, or with the broader literature on science and technology.
3. Mayntz, R., & Hughes, T. P. (Eds). (1988). The development of large technical systems. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, p. 7.
4. A good lay introduction to this literature is found in Mitchell Waldrop's 1992 discussion of the development of the Santa Fe Institute, Complexity: The emerging science at the edge of order and chaos. Interested scholars, as I have, then can use the cited references in the book to locate a growing literature on the subject. See also Maturana, H., & Varela, F. (1980). Autopoesis and cognition: The realization of the living. London: Reidl. For a similar layperson's introduction to chaos theory, see Gleick, J. (1987). Chaos: Making a new science. New York, NY: Viking Press.